GlobalData has revised its 2025 global light vehicle (LV) production forecast downward by 300,000 units, bringing the estimated total to 92.3 million, reflecting a 2.4% year-on-year increase. The vehicle production adjustment is driven by a cautious demand outlook in both European and North American markets.
According to the latest forecast, newly announced U.S. tariffs present significant risks to North America’s LV production, potentially reducing output by over 500,000 units. However, GlobalData analyst Justin Cox noted that the current base forecast of 15.5 million units (+0.7% YoY) does not factor in lasting tariff effects. He emphasized that the risks from increasing protectionist policies remain high.
In Europe, weak demand led to a 5% year-on-year decline in Pan-European LV production in December 2024. The full-year total dropped to 17.45 million units, marking a 3% decline compared to 2023. For 2025, GlobalData has lowered its European LV production estimate by 70,000 units to 17.6 million, reflecting a modest 0.9% growth.
Cox highlighted that while new model launches may support production, pricing challenges remain a key risk. Additionally, stricter European emission targets and U.S. trade policies could hinder affordability and demand.
Meanwhile, China’s 2025 LV production forecast remains unchanged at 31.4 million units, reflecting a 3.5% year-on-year growth. However, GlobalData warned that uncertainty in global trade could impact production in China and key export hubs such as Korea and Japan.
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