China’s auto industry is projected to sell more than 40 million vehicles annually over the next five years, with exports reaching 10 million units per year by 2030, according to Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA).
Cui shared the forecast in an online article on Saturday, noting that his estimate may be more optimistic than market consensus but stressing that China has the capacity to achieve it. He pointed to opportunities in both domestic and international markets, describing the sector as still having ‘vast potential’ for expansion.
Domestically, Cui highlighted growth prospects in midwestern regions and rural areas, where car ownership remains lower than in major cities such as Beijing and Shanghai. China’s ownership rate stands at 250 cars per 1,000 people, significantly below Europe’s 641 and the United States’ 860, according to the International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers.
On the global stage, he said the Global South is set to become an increasingly important market, with consumers opting for cost-effective Chinese brands over second-hand vehicles from developed economies. He also noted that the shorter lifespan of electric vehicles, around 10 years compared with 18 years for petrol cars, would help sustain demand as EV adoption accelerates.
China has already established itself as the world’s largest car manufacturer, seller, and exporter, benefiting from its early embrace of electric vehicles. In 2024, the country recorded 31.4 million auto sales, of which EVs made up more than 40%. Exports reached 4.96 million units that year, according to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM).
In the first eight months of 2025, passenger car sales in China rose 9.5% year on year to 14.74 million units, while exports increased 13.7% to 4.29 million.
The Chinese government continues to back the industry with supportive policies. In September, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology introduced an action plan to guide development through 2026. The measures aim to address excessive competition, promote pilot projects for autonomous driving, and accelerate breakthroughs in areas such as semiconductors, operating systems, and solid-state batteries.
With its extensive supply chain and growing influence across strategic industries, China’s auto sector is expected to play a central role in advancing both domestic innovation and global competitiveness in the years ahead.
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