Vietnam is expected to witness a significant shift in its transportation landscape, with car sales projected to surpass motorbike purchases after 2035, according to a new World Bank report. This transition reflects changing consumer behavior, economic growth, and the country’s push for greener mobility.
Surge in Car Sales and EV Adoption
The World Bank’s latest Vietnam Economic Update, titled Accelerating the Transition to Electric Vehicles in Vietnam, highlights the nation’s shift towards sustainable transport. The Vietnamese government has set ambitious targets under Decision No. 876/QD-TTg, aiming for 50% of urban vehicles and 100% of city buses and taxis to be electric by 2030. By 2050, all road vehicles are expected to run on electricity or other green energy alternatives.
To meet these targets, Vietnam’s annual car sales must rise from 500,000 today to 1.5 million by 2030, 2 million by 2035, and 7.3 million by 2050. Meanwhile, demand for electric vehicles (both cars and motorbikes) is projected to reach 7 million units between 2024 and 2030 before surging to 71 million between 2031 and 2050.
Car Sales to Equal Motorbike Sales by 2035
Vietnam’s transportation sector is currently dominated by motorbikes, with 72.16 million registered units in 2022, accounting for 94% of total vehicles. The motorbike ownership rate stands at 518 per 1,000 people, while car ownership lags behind at just 22 per 1,000.
However, the World Bank forecasts a shift in consumer preferences between 2024 and 2035. By 2035, annual sales of both cars and motorbikes are expected to equalize at approximately 2 million units each. After this point, car ownership is projected to rise sharply, reaching 54 million vehicles by 2050, with a per capita ownership rate of 312 cars per 1,000 people.
Economic Growth Driving Car Ownership
The report attributes this transformation to Vietnam’s rising income levels. The country’s GDP per capita has climbed from $1,300 in 2010 to over $4,100 in 2022, with forecasts approaching $5,000. As Vietnam progresses into the upper middle-income category, car ownership is expected to become more widespread.
The World Bank also projects that electric vehicles will play a crucial role in this transition. By 2035, EVs are expected to account for 25-30% of total car sales, while the electrification rate for motorbikes could reach 56%. However, these estimates will depend on government policies, industry investment, and infrastructure expansion to support widespread EV adoption.
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